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Ethereum is up 10% in seven days
The price of Ether, or ETH, the token that powers the Ethereum blockchain network, has risen more than 10 percent in the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap. ETH last changed hands at just under $1,300 per token before the start of the U.S. trading session on Monday, up just over 2.5 percent in the past 24 hours and attempting to break out to a new near one-month high and test its 50-moving average just below $1,340.
Since forming a double bottom in the $1,080 area in November, ether has rebounded about 20 percent in the past three weeks. Optimism that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of monetary tightening in coming months and U.S. inflation showing clear signs of peaking have lifted U.S. stocks, bonds (meaning lower yields) and many commodities, and weighed on the dollar since October. This trend has been driving the growth of cryptocurrencies in recent weeks.
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But ETH still has some way to go if it is to make up for its losses after the FTX crash. Before the exchange’s unfortunate collapse this time last month, ETH/USD had been trading in the $1,550 to $1,650 area, about 20-25% above current levels. Crypto bulls will be hoping that as December progresses, Ether will recover to these levels with the help of a “Christmas rally” – a phenomenon in which risk assets rally in the run-up to Christmas, as has been the case historically.
Price forecast: ETH prepares for short-term increase
Ether has formed an ascending triangle over the past few weeks and looks to be on the verge of a short-term upward breakout. ETH /USD has been supported by an uptrend since Nov. 22, but has not been able to consistently break above $1,300 in the past few days. Price patterns such as these are often seen as the precursor to a bullish breakout, and as a result, price forecasts have become more bullish.
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If ETH/USD does break upward, the first target would be the 50-day moving average of $1,334, followed by the 100-day moving average of $1,383 and then the 200-day moving average of $1,457. If Ether can break above 200DMA, it will be a tough task, as that level has been a key area of technical resistance into 2022, and it may be able to test the top of the downtrend channel that has been limiting price action since the summer of 2022.
Ether back above $2,000 summer high?
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If Ether manages to break out of this bearish trend channel, it sets the stage for a test of a recent high of $1,600 and a potential long-term bullish pullback above the summer’s pre-merger high of optimism at $2,000. Such a move is possible if the macro environment continues to improve (i.e., the interest rate outlook eases further) and cryptocurrency sentiment continues to recover (i.e., decentralized finance begins to flow in large numbers again).
Not everyone is bullish, though. Standard Chartered bank warned in a recent report that the price of bitcoin could fall as much as 70 percent by 2023. This would certainly hurt Ethereum badly as well.
Vitalik Buterin’s latest advice
Vitalik Buterin has some advice for those tired of the seemingly eternal crypto bear market, its endless army of bots, scammers and fraudsters. On Saturday, an account called @CoinMamba commented: “After 9 years in crypto, I’m a little tired. I wanted to move on and do something different. Tired of all these swindlers and fraudsters…” .
In response, Buterin suggested CoinMamba increase “your distance from the trading/investment community” and “get closer to the technology and application ecosystem.” He advised CoinMamba to “learn about ZK-SNARKs, visit Latin American parties, listen to All Core Devs calls and read the notes until you memorize all the EIP numbers…” .
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